The forecast for the ISPS Handa Women’s Scottish Open on Friday shows 20 mph winds with 30 mph gusts, so expect a wild week of weather along the west coast of Scotland. Just a few miles north of Royal Troon, Dundonald Links is hosting their sixth edition of the Women’s Scottish Open, and as a true links design, the field will not be protected as they compete on this coastal course.
The par-72 scorecard measuring 6,584 yards doesn’t tell the full story of Dundonald. This week’s venue weaves its way through the Scottish landscape, meaning accuracy should be far more important than length. Nearly 80 bunkers and an endless number of dunes define the edges of this course.
Past winning scores have ranged from 6-under in 2017 to 21-under in 2022. We have seen weather affect the field of 144 here before, so to cross the cutline and get to the weekend, the top 65 and ties must control their trajectory.
Looking back at the last two leaderboards, there are three specific keys to success. The first is approach play. The last two groups of top-10 finishers gained an average of 5.4 strokes on the field with their iron play. After ranking the best approach players in the field and comparing their proximities to the hole, Minjee Lee, Jin Young Ko and Mao Saigo stand out. These athletes trust their trajectory and control their shots the most. They will need some serious self-confidence when it comes to hitting as many greens in regulation as possible
Hitting greens will also increase a player’s ability to score. The last two top 10s averaged 21 sub-par scores per 72 holes. That’s a lot of birdies and eagles. To accomplish that level of prolific scoring, these players must also roll the rock effectively. Hyo Joo Kim, Madelene Sagstrom and Lilia Vu have the best combined strokes gained putting and putts per green in regulation stats out of those competing this week at Dundonald Links. If the weather situation gets as wild as predicted, picking the best putters never hurts, as it’s the best way to save strokes when the conditions are challenging on the ground.
The final key is par-5 scoring. The four par 5s at Dundonald average 505 yards in length, well below the LPGA Tour’s average. Recording 20 plus sub-par scores throughout the week requires scoring opportunities. Leaders have torn up the par 5s on this course, and even in bad weather, these holes are scorable. Alison Lee, Jenny Shin, Patty Tavatanakit and Sagstrom can separate themselves from the rest of the field with their par-5 scoring, as it will provide quite an edge over four difficult days playing in the wind and rain.
The best par-5 scorers tend to be good at everything. They are above average in length and have great course management. They can score from short range and make putts. Those keys will be essential and a major reason why players like Sagstrom and Shin are attention-catching.
Throw in pure ball striking complemented by an opportunistic putter and the betting favorite and 2022 ISPS Handa Women’s Scottish Open champion Ayaka Furue is a player to watch. Pay close attention to scoring ability in the elements this week, and you should have a better idea of who to pick for the AIG Women’s Open.
Enjoy the coastal conditions at the Women’s Scottish Open, and don’t forget to make your picks Wednesday night, as round one begins Thursday at 2:00 a.m. Eastern in the United States.
Keith Stewart is an award-winning PGA Professional. He covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR for Golf Digest, SportsGrid, The Sporting News, LPGA, and PGA TOUR. If you are looking to raise your golf acumen and love inside information about the game, check out his weekly newsletter called Read The Line.
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