The LPGA Tour is about to begin its fall Asian swing in the People’s Republic of China, with the Buick LPGA Shanghai kicking off the four-event stretch that will last until early November. There are 81 athletes in the field for this no-cut 72-hole event, and with just six events left before the CME Group Tour Championship, many are working to play their way into the top 60 of the Race to the CME Globe and qualify for the last event of the season.

The Buick LPGA Shanghai was first played in 2018 at Qizhong Garden Golf Club. Danielle Kang took home that title and then won again in 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic paused this event until last year when Angel Yin won in a playoff over two-time major champion Lilia Vu to become a Rolex First-Time Winner on the LPGA Tour.

With three editions of this event played at Qizhong Garden Golf Club, we do have some idea of what to expect and who should fare well. Eight of the top 25 in the Rolex Women’s World Golf Rankings are in the field. A $2.1 million purse with a $315,000 winner’s share is available, and while the cash is great, even more so are the coveted 500 points in the season-long Race to the CME Globe that will be given to this year’s champion.

The course conditions reflect the great weather Shanghai has witnessed over the past few weeks. Expect temperatures in the high 70s and no rain, but there is a small chance of precipitation on Sunday coming later in the day. The wind is predicted to blow under 10 mph and out of the East and Northeast. Overall, it’s going to be near-perfect weather for what should be a great test of golf.

In the three editions held to date, the average winning score is 14-under, and the top 10 from a year ago averaged 18 sub-par scores for the week. Bogey avoidance is a real concern as these athletes will be tested when it comes to picking targets. Twelve holes have water in play, the course is covered in bunkers and the greens are a little smaller in size than the Tour average.

Our two past champions are completely opposite of one another when it comes to player skillsets. Kang leans heavily on her ball striking, while Yin is one of the LPGA Tour’s best putters. But looking past the winners, there are some themes in the past leaderboards and recent statistical data.

The secret in Shanghai is to gain an edge on the greens. When comparing strokes gained putting with birdie or better percentage and putts per green in regulation, Jeeno Thitikul and Hannah Green lead the way, something that certainly makes sense. Green has two wins this year, and Thitikul seems to contend every week, earning one victory and eight other top-10 results in 13 starts since she returned from injury in the spring.

Since Qizhong Garden Golf Club is a target test, approach, greens in regulation and proximity to the hole should also indicate success. Comparing those three rankings, Minjee Lee and Louise Suggs Rookie of the Year points leader Mao Saigo stand out. Thitikul and Green aren’t far behind, which is also really attention-catching. Lee is an incredible iron player, but if her putting doesn’t show improvement, those other athletes will have a huge edge.

The blueprint for success around Qizhong Garden Golf Club has been to score on the par 5s, survive the par 3s and separate on the par 4s. Seven of the 10 par 4s have water in play and can cause a double bogey at any moment. Pay attention to the best par-4 players who also go low on the par 5s. That’s what our winner will need to do to take home the trophy. Thitikul and Saigo lead again, but so does Sei Young Kim. The 31-year-old Republic of Korea native began her year with six straight top-20 results. An injury-plagued summer slowed her down, but Kim just finished third at the Walmart NW Arkansas Championship presented by P&G and 19th at the Kroger Queen City Championship presented by P&G.

Kim was runner-up in 2018 and finished sixth in 2019 at the Buick LPGA Shanghai. She loves this layout and can score here. A little past the betting favorites like Thitikul, Kim provides more value further down the odds board. This breakdown gives us a great idea of who will play well in the People’s Republic of China.

Based on these trends, who do you think will win the Buick LPGA Shanghai? Make sure you write down a couple of names and keep track of their finish. There’s nothing better than having a player or two in contention to sweat it out with on a Sunday. If you are going to go one step further and wager this weekend, don’t forget the play begins Wednesday night.

Keith Stewart is an award-winning PGA Professional. He covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR for Golf Digest, SportsGrid, The Sporting News, LPGA, and PGA TOUR. If you are looking to raise your golf acumen and love inside information about the game, check out his weekly newsletter called Read The Line.

Secret to Winning in Shanghai Can Be Found in One Place

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