The final stage of the fall Asia swing takes the LPGA Tour to Japan for the TOTO Japan Classic. Just a little northeast of Osaka, Seta Golf Course is very close to the geographic center of the country, and 14 of the top 30 women in the Rolex Women’s World Golf Rankings are in the 78-player field.

The $2 million purse may catch your attention, but with just three regular-season events left to earn coveted Race to the CME Globe Points, the 43 LPGA players in the field are focused on working their way into or maintaining their position in the top 60 on the season-long points list. The remaining 35 spots in this year’s TOTO Japan Classic field are filled by players from the JLPGA.

This co-sanctioned event has been played at Seta Golf Course 14 times ahead of this year. Scotland’s Gemma Dryburgh won on Seta’s North Course in 2022 and Ai Suzuki did the same in 2019. The JLPGA used Seta Golf Course in 2020 and 2021 for the TOTO, but those tournaments were not co-sanctioned with the LPGA due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Annika Sorenstam owned this event back in the day, winning five TOTO Japan Classics in a row from 2001 to 2005, four of which came at Seta Golf Course. The par-72 scorecard stretches 6,616 yards, and history tells us that the top priority here is scoring.

The winners of this tournament average nearly 5-under (-4.84) per round, as evidenced by Dryburgh, who finished at 20-under when she won in 2022. This year’s entire Asian swing has been all about scoring. Ruoning Yin captured her second title in three events at the Maybank Championship on Sunday, finishing with a 72-hole total of 23-under.

Knowing Sorenstam’s abilities and looking through the top 10 from two years ago, we can target specific skills to help predict the winner. Since scoring really matters, let’s start there and compare strokes gained scoring rankings to both birdie or better percentage and par-5 scoring. Why specifically par 5s? The scoring history at Seta Golf Course shows many players attacking the pars 5s. Linn Grant, Mao Saigo and Yealimi Noh sit atop the list when looking at those metrics. Sure, the betting favorite Haeran Ryu can be included, too, but we should also look past the favorite.

Saigo has been spectacular lately, finishing T2, T12 and T30 in her last three starts in Asia. She is definitely a player who will be attention-catching in her home country of Japan, as Saigo has six career victories on the JLPGA and seven top 10s this year on the LPGA at just 23 years old.

The forecast calls for wet weather, which will increase scoring chances due to softer conditions. The rain will also give an advantage to the best players off the tee. Jennifer Kupcho, Saigo and Ryu are three of the best off-the-tee players on Tour. Long and straight was always Sorenstam’s key, and she was more powerful and accurate than her competition.

One other new analytic on the LPGA website is ball striking. The LPGA Tour’s breakdown of this metric is the sum of total driving and greens in regulation. A good cumulative stat like this really gives us an idea of who can avoid Seta Golf Course’s 92 bunkers, handle five holes with water in play and tackle the hilly terrain. Ryu is tied for the lead in this stat the entire LPGA, but there is some serious value down the board with Brooke Henderson. She finished 10th last week at the Maybank Championship, securing her first top-10 result since July.

We see Saigo near the top of that list as well. Don’t forget we have 35 JLPGA players in the field, just as Saigo was a year ago. In 2022, nine players from the JLPGA finished inside the top 25, and 10 athletes did the same in 2019. One year ago, at a different venue, 13 JLPGA players were inside the top 25.

When you write down your predictions, here are a couple of stars to consider from the JLPGA. Rio Takeda leads their tour in wins (four), top 10s (20), scoring average and money earned. Miyu Yamashita has competed in several LPGA majors and played well in 2024. She’s another consideration, but how about Sakura Koiwai?

Koiwai has 15 top 10s and a couple of wins this season. She is a brilliant ball striker and can really score. At double Takeda and Yamashita’s odds, she could have a lot of value in this event.

Prepare for a wild week. The TOTO Japan Classic was a 54-hole tournament for years, and Sorenstam’s winning scores were all in the 20s. Let’s keep that momentum going across the ocean and see one of the aforementioned names hoist the TOTO trophy.

Keith Stewart is an award-winning PGA Professional. He covers the LPGA and PGA TOUR for Golf Digest, SportsGrid, The Sporting News, LPGA, and PGA TOUR. If you are looking to raise your golf acumen and love inside information about the game, check out his weekly newsletter called Read The Line.

Picking the Winner of the TOTO Japan Classic

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