The Amundi Evian Championship delivered another signature finish last week, with a cast of contenders moving up and down the leaderboard as the final round progressed.
When Ayaka Furue made eagle on the 72nd hole to win by a single shot, it gave Japan its first ever multi-win major championship season in either the women’s or men’s game, coupling with Yuka Saso’s victory earlier this year at the U.S. Women’s Open.
And while that’s the end point, it’s just a sliver of the story from Evian-les-Bains.
Win probability shuffle
The closing stretch at last week’s Amundi Evian Championship was one of the wildest in LPGA Tour major history, with four different players having in excess of 40% win probability at any given point in the final five holes. The math behind the wild finish:
*When Lauren Coughlin made par at 14, it was her 27th consecutive hole without a dropped shot. As she walked to the tee at No. 15, she had the highest win probability in the field, and her highest of the week, at 61.8%.
*Coughlin then made par at the 15th while Steph Kyriacou made birdie. Coughlin still held the win probability advantage, but it was slim – 41.4% to Coughlin’s 40.9%. Meanwhile, Ayaka Furue, who had a 3.8% win probability going to the 14th tee, birdied 14 and 15 to climb to 15.2%.
*Kyriacou’s birdie at the par-3 16th was enormous, moving her win probability to 72%. Coughlin made bogey at No. 16, pushing her to just 3%.
*Kyriacou made bogey at 17. Coupled with another Furue birdie, the Japanese star went from a 3% win probability to the tournament favorite in five holes.
*Furue eagled the final hole to beat Kyriacou – who made birdie – by a single stroke.
When Furue left the 13th green on Sunday, her win probability (3.8%) was the lowest it had been since the middle of the second round. Her rousing 5-under in the last five holes finish was one of the most electric closing stretches in major-championship history.
Lights-out putting
As is usually the case with Furue, a sparkling performance on the greens helped lead her charge to victory. Furue led the field in strokes gained putting for the week, picking up 11.9 strokes on the field on the greens alone. Her 4.59 strokes gained putting in the final round also led all players.
Furue entered the week leading the LPGA Tour this season in putts made of 10 feet or longer and extended her advantage in that race with her performance in France. Furue drained 13 putts of at least 10 feet for the week, giving her 118 for the season, 19 more than any other player on the LPGA Tour in 2024.
Furue was also strong with her approach play, gaining 5.5 strokes with that facet of her game. For the week, she ranked in the top-10 in greens in regulation percentage (80.6%) and in the top-20 in average proximity to the hole on approaches (20’9”).
After the closing 65 by Furue, there have now been six instances since 2015 of a player shooting a final round of 65 or lower to win an LPGA Tour major. Half of those have come at the Amundi Evian Championship.
Revealing the best
Furue entered the week 21st in the Rolex Women’s World Rankings, the ninth time in the last 10 editions of this championship that the winner was among the top-25 players in the world.
Since 2015, the average Rolex Rankings of Amundi Evian Championship winners is 16.4. That is by far the lowest number among the five major championships in that span, with the second-best being the KPMG Women’s PGA Championship at 26.2.
Each of the last 10 major champions in the women’s game have been in the top-30 of the Rolex Rankings the week of their win. In the 15 prior majors contested, only five had that distinction.
Strong approach week for Tavatanakit
Patty Tavatanakit made a Sunday charge, carding six birdies and an eagle in a final round 63. Tavatanakit’s ball striking was excellent all week, as she hit at least 15 greens in regulation in each round. For the championship, she led all players in both strokes gained approach (+12.2) and strokes gained tee to green (+18.0).
Entering last week, Tavatanakit had just two rounds all season in which she gained three or more strokes on the field with her approach play. She had three of those rounds this week – Thursday, Friday and Sunday. Her 3.27 strokes gained approach in the final round ranked second in the field, trailing only Peiyun Chien (3.38).
Ewing terrific again
Ally Ewing continues to be one of the better stories on the LPGA Tour this season, picking up her third consecutive top-10 finish in a major and fifth overall. Ewing is the only player to finish in the top-10 in each of the last three major championships contested. In France, she continued her excellent balanced attack, ranking in the top-20 in the field in both strokes gained approach and strokes gained putting.
Ewing is all the way up to fifth on the LPGA Tour this season in strokes gained total per round, a statistic she ranked 24th in a season ago. Her next big test, the AIG Women’s Open, is undoubtedly one she has been thinking about all season – a year ago, she held a five-shot lead after two rounds, the largest 36-hole lead at that championship in 11 years. Solheim Cup teammate Lilia Vu would go on to win the title that week.
The performance – and redemption – arcs could be pointing to a big close to the major season for the American next month at St Andrews.
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