Make no mistake about it. Nelly Korda is re-writing the LPGA history book.
In winning her second career major at The Chevron Championship last month, Nelly Korda became the third player in LPGA Tour history to win in five consecutive starts, joining legends Nancy Lopez and Annika Sorenstam. Only Tiger Woods (three times) has accomplished this feat since 1950 on the PGA Tour.
Korda’s brilliant run has cemented her place at the top of the Rolex Women’s World Golf Rankings. The gap in average points per event between the top spot (12.18) and number two Lilia Vu (6.42) is currently larger than the one between Vu and the 150th-ranked player (0.78). Korda is the first American player to win five tournaments in an LPGA season since Juli Inkster in 1999, and she did it all before the beginning of May.
How has Korda’s game gone from excellent to historically dominant? KPMG Performance Insights, which provides the most comprehensive performance data ever available in women’s professional golf, offers a look at the empirical reasons fueling Korda’s sprint to the top of the sport.
Elite Approach Play
The biggest reason for Korda’s uptick in results has come from more precise iron play. It’s not that she’s been a poor approach player in the past. In both 2022 and 2023, she was well above average, gaining about two-tenths of a stroke per round each season. That was good enough to rank 58th and 56th among qualified players.
Korda has gone from good to outstanding in this facet of the game in 2024. She’s averaging more than four times as many strokes gained with her approach play this season at +0.90 per round. Last season, Korda had positive strokes gained approach in 56 percent of her overall rounds played. This season, that rate is up to 67 percent.
The LPGA Tour green-in-regulation rate this season following a hit fairway is 73.5%. When Nelly is in the fairway, she goes on to hit the green 83.7% of the time. Her advantage over her peers following a missed fairway is even more significant. Following a missed fairway on a par 4 or 5, Korda is finding the putting surface in regulation at a 61.5% clip. Her peers are doing that just 48.5% of the time.
Korda is especially lethal this season with her scoring clubs. From 100 to 125 yards away, she hits the ball on average two feet closer to the hole than her competition. Overall, her average proximity has improved by more than a foot and a half from all distances compared to last season. This has given her buckets full of birdie opportunities, which she has converted 34.4% of the time in 2024 – the fourth-highest rate of any player.
Balanced Brilliance
Korda has long been one of the game’s premier drivers of the golf ball. She led the LPGA Tour in strokes gained off the tee in 2022 and has followed that up with top-10 rankings in 2023 (sixth) and 2024 (second). Total driving is a traditional metric that combines a player’s rankings in average distance and accuracy off the tee. From 2018 through 2023, Korda never finished a season outside the top 10 in that statistic.
Coupling excellent performance off the tee with elite iron play is a rare occurrence, even for the best players in the world. Korda is one of just two players who currently ranks in the top 15 on the LPGA Tour in both strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained approach (Haeran Ryu is the other).
But Korda isn’t only excellent in those two phases of her game. Statistically, she’s the best player around the greens on the LPGA Tour in 2024, as well. Nelly is gaining 0.84 strokes around the green per round this season, the most of any player. Her average of 2.33 strokes gained tee-to-green per round is more than half a stroke better than any other player – larger than the gap between No. 2 (Megan Khang) and No. 11 (Carlota Ciganda) in that metric.
She Can Get Even Better
Perhaps the most remarkable thing about this stretch is that Korda has the potential to improve on what she’s been doing during her historic win streak. Among qualified players this season, Korda has one of the lowest putt-make percentages from five to 10 feet on the LPGA Tour. The overall make rate from that range this season is 56.7%. Nelly is making 40.4% of her putts from that distance.
This speaks to just how fantastic Korda has been as a ball striker in 2024. Korda puts herself in so many advantageous positions with her drives, approach shots and chips that she is able to easily overcome a missed putt here or there. And despite the relative struggles from five to 10 feet, Korda is still gaining nearly half a stroke per round on the greens this year (+0.49), almost doubling her average from a season ago (+0.26).
Probability and Perspective
When a player is putting together a historic streak like the one Korda is on, it can be easy to lose sight of a simple fact: winning a golf tournament is extremely difficult.
KPMG Performance Insights has introduced AI-powered predictive analytics this season on the LPGA Tour, providing broadcasters with pre-tournament and live probabilities of player results and other key numbers like the projected cut line. Those insights tell us that entering each of the last four events Korda has won, she had between an 8 and 10.1% probability of going on to victory.
The varying tournament conditions and course setups during Korda’s streak add another layer to its brilliance. All five wins came in different states, with putting surfaces ranging from Poa annua to Bermuda. Each tournament had a different player finishing runner-up. Looking at the sheer length of time it has lasted, compare it to another major sport. Her streak started on NFL Championship Sunday and has lasted through the completion of the NFL Draft several months later.
Golf fans are witnessing history this season, and KPMG Performance Insights aid in telling the story behind Nelly Korda’s incredible play.
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